Xiang Chen & Xin Qiang，Dynamics and Evolution of Guatemala’s Taiwan Policy (1949-2023)，Taiwan Studies，No.1，2024，pp.65-74

Abstract: This paper explores the driving forces and strategies shaping Guatemala’s Taiwan policy, with afocus on Guatemala’s distinctive standing as one of the last Central American allies. It identifies two coreelements influencing Guatemala’s diplomatic strategies towards Taiwan: the internal power dynamics amongits political elites and external pressures stemming from the United States. The paper dissects Guatemala’sevolving relationship with Taiwan into three eras, using two pivotal events as demarcations: Taiwan’s oustingfrom the United Nations in 1971 and the end of Guatemala’s civil war in 1996. These periods are characterizedas initial diplomatic volatility (1940-1970), a stage of mutual benefits (1971-1996), and an era of strategicbargaining with Taiwan (1997-present). Against the backdrop of the declining influence of Guatemala’smilitary elite and the reduced impact of the US, Guatemala’s Taiwan policy exhibits significant instability,signaling a potential forthcoming shift in the near future.Key Words: Cross-Straits Relations; Guatemala; Elite Politics; External Political Risks; Central America