Abstract:

In the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump significantly expanded his voter base by framing his campaign around a return to common sense and adopting a multi-coalition mobilization strategy akin to the Democratic model. This effort forged a Trump Coalition comprising right-wing populists, traditional Republican conservatives, the tech-right interest group, and a substantial segment of former Obama Coalition voters. This coalition’s political legitimacy, and arguably its broader mandate from the public for the Trump 2.0 era, is derived from a combination of factors: populist-conservative ideology, electoral political interests, industrial policy preferences, and demands for economic recalibration. However, the increasingly radical policy agenda of the second Trump administration, guided by populist conservatism and characterized by economic populism, extreme conservative values and highly contentious reforms underpinned by expanded executive power, has misread the electoral mandate of 2024. This agenda is also undermining the internal stability of the coalition. Notably, the tech-right bloc and former Obama Coalition voters are already showing signs of detachment. Consequently, whether Trump can consolidate his coalition through policy adjustments will significantly shape the dynamics of US partisan competition.

Keywords:

US politics, Trump administration, Trump coalition, party realignment, populism